The Path to Glory for College Football Playoff Contenders
The debates are over, and the first-ever 12-team College Football Playoff (CFP) bracket is here. Fans are buzzing after the CFP selection committee revealed its final rankings, sparking excitement, controversy, and plenty of heated discussions. Decisions such as SMU securing the last at-large spot over Alabama and Boise State earning top-tier placement as a conference champion bring unique dynamics to this year’s bracket. Even more intriguing? The paths to Atlanta’s national championship game on January 20 don’t always align with the seeding.
Wondering which teams got lucky and which faced an uphill battle? Here’s an in-depth look at who has the clearest shot at glory and who’s staring down the toughest path.
Teams with the Easiest Path to the National Championship
The road to victory isn’t created equal, some teams are going to have a smoother ride on their way (hopefully) to lifting the College Football Playoff National Championship Trophy. These teams have lined up favorable matchups—or at least seem positioned for a smoother ride.
1. Georgia
The Bulldogs’ reward for their standout season and SEC Championship win? A simplified march toward a home-state national title in Atlanta. They begin with a first-round bye and will face either Notre Dame or Indiana at the Sugar Bowl in the quarterfinals. If Georgia advances to the semifinals, they face the winner of Boise State, Penn State, or SMU—teams that haven’t demonstrated consistent elite-level dominance. The combination of experience and a relatively manageable bracket makes Georgia the team to beat.
2. Texas
Texas enters the playoff with only one loss (against Georgia) and is the highest-ranked at-large team. Their first game is a home-field clash with Clemson, the tournament’s lowest-seeded team. Should they win, Texas would take on Big 12 Champion Arizona State at the Peach Bowl before potentially facing a semifinal matchup against undefeated Oregon, Ohio State, or Tennessee. The college football betting odds for Texas are currently in their favor, and their impressive resume gives them a clear shot at the title game.
3. Boise State
The Mountain West champions secured a favorable position within the bracket, thanks to their higher seeding over fellow conference champs Arizona State and Clemson. After a first-round bye, they’re set to play either Penn State or SMU in the Fiesta Bowl quarterfinals, avoiding powerhouse opposition early. Boise State’s physical style and competitive spirit make them a solid dark horse contender.
4. Penn State
Penn State might have lost the Big Ten Championship, but their road to redemption is surprisingly navigable. With a first-round home game against SMU—the final at-large qualifier—the Nittany Lions will enjoy a raucous home crowd advantage. Victory in that game would set up a CFP quarter-final showdown with Boise State at the Fiesta Bowl. Some might argue that Penn State has a more favorable path than even conference champion Michigan.
5. Oregon
The CFP’s only undefeated team enters as the No. 1 seed, but their draws reflect the quirks of mandated seeding rules. They’ll face either Ohio State or Tennessee in the Rose Bowl—a tough challenge—but remain in solid form given their strong season. Their semifinal opponent in Atlanta could include Texas, Arizona State, or Clemson.
6. Arizona State
While Arizona State earned a first-round bye, their seeding hurts their path forward. A cross-country trip to face either Texas or Clemson at the Peach Bowl in Atlanta awaits them in the CFP quarterfinals. This unfavorable path means steep hurdles to clear for the Sun Devils.
Teams Facing the Hardest Path to the National Championship
Not every road to Atlanta is paved smoothly. Here are the teams with steeper climbs to glory.
1. Indiana
Indiana’s path to a title borders on unforgiving. They start by traveling to South Bend to face in-state rival Notre Dame in a first-round battle. Should they pull off the upset, they immediately face top-seeded Georgia in the Sugar Bowl. Beating the Bulldogs would still leave Boise State, Penn State, or SMU as potential semifinal foes. The Hoosiers must be flawless to have a chance.
2. Tennessee
The Volunteers’ challenge begins in Ohio State’s backyard for a first-round matchup in Columbus. Should they survive, the Rose Bowl awaits, where undefeated Oregon looms as a CFP quarterfinal opponent. Tennessee’s two losses this year—both away from home—underscore the danger of this demanding draw.
3. Clemson
Clemson snuck into the field as the No. 12 seed, but that placement all but guarantees a rugged road ahead. Their first test? Traveling to face Texas in Austin, a daunting first-round matchup. Even with a win there, they’d face Arizona State in Atlanta’s Peach Bowl quarterfinals. Waiting in the wings for the semifinals? Likely Oregon, the top seed.
4. SMU
The Mustangs generated plenty of buzz by edging out Alabama for the final spot in the field. But their inclusion comes with strings attached. They open with a brutal first-round test at Penn State, one of the hotter teams in the nation heading into the playoff. Victory for SMU would lead to a challenge against Boise State in the quarterfinals—a battle of the top non-Power Five programs.
5. Ohio State
The Buckeyes stumbled late but still made the field. Their early momentum hinges on hosting Tennessee in a must-win first-round game. Victory there leads to an unenviable CFP quarterfinal clash at the Rose Bowl against top-seeded Oregon—an opponent the Buckeyes narrowly lost to earlier this season. Ohio State will need to show significant growth to survive.
6. Notre Dame
The Fighting Irish drew an intriguing matchup to open the playoff—a home game against in-state rival Indiana, in what could be a redemption moment. The winner will battle SEC-titan Georgia in the Sugar Bowl. If Notre Dame wants to fight their way to Atlanta, they’ll have to punch through the reigning champs early.
Final Thoughts
The beauty of the College Football Playoff lies in its unpredictability. While higher-seeded teams like Georgia and Boise State appear well-positioned, the nature of football means shocks and surprises are inevitable. Whether your favorite team is cruising or navigating rocky terrain, the next few weeks promise to deliver unforgettable moments.
For fans, it’s time to sit back, strap in, and witness history unfold. Which teams will rise to the occasion, punch their ticket to Atlanta, and vie for the ultimate glory? Time will tell, but one thing is clear—every single game matters.